[1]张颖,黄红伟,薛艳军.极端天气下电网故障预警及风险评估模型[J].机械与电子,2022,(11):15-19.
　ZHANG Ying,HUANG Hongwei,XUE Yanjun.Grid Fault Early Warning and Risk Assessment Model under Extreme Weather Processes[J].Machinery & Electronics,2022,(11):15-19.
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极端天气下电网故障预警及风险评估模型()

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《机械与电子》[ISSN:1001-2257/CN:52-1052/TH]

Title:: Grid Fault Early Warning and Risk Assessment Model under Extreme Weather Processes

作者:: 张颖 ¹ ; 黄红伟 ² ; 薛艳军 ²; 1. 国网陕西省电力公司,陕西西安 710048 ; 2. 北京清大科越股份有限公司,北京 100102

Author(s):: ZHANG Ying¹ ; HUANG Hongwei² ; XUE Yanjun²; ( 1.State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Company , Xi ’ an 710048 , China ; 2.Beijing QU Creative Technology Co. , Ltd. , Beijing 100102 , China )

Keywords:: extreme weather processes ; early warning of grid failure ; risk assessment ; artificial neural network

摘要:: 为分析台风、暴雨等极端天气对电网正常运行造成的影响并做出风险评估以作应对,提出了极端天气下电网故障预警及风险评估模型。分析了在极大风以及雷电天气影响下电网可靠性能以及风险评估,针对极端气象环境对电力系统的影响进行了分析,建立了极端天气条件下的电网故障评估模型,提出了电网韧性指标,利用 Credal 集合对可靠性评估进行分析,其中应用人工神经网络进行潮流计算。最后通过仿真分析论证了所提方法的有效性。

Abstract:: In order to analyze the impact of extreme weather processes such as typhoon and rainstorm on the normal operation of the power grid and make risk assessments to deal with it , a power grid fault early warning and risk assessment model under extreme weather processes is proposed.The reliability performance and risk assessment of the power grid under the influence of extreme wind and lightning weather processes are analyzed , and the impact of extreme meteorological environment on the power system is analyzed.The grid fault assessment model under extreme weather conditions is established , and the grid resilience index is proposed.The ensemble is analyzed for reliability assessment , in which artificial neural network is applied for power flow calculation.Finally , the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper is demonstrated by simulation analysis.

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备注/Memo:: 收稿日期: 2022-05-09
作者简介:张颖 ( 1979- ),女,陕西西安人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为电网新能源技术;黄红伟 ( 1981- ),男,河南安阳人,学士,工程师,研究方向为电力市场、负荷预测及检修优化。

更新日期/Last Update: 2022-12-06