[1]张希恒,张志辰,薛睿渊,等.基于马尔可夫模型的三偏心蝶阀可靠性建模研究[J].机械与电子,2026,44(05):16-23.
　ZHANG Xiheng,ZHANG Zhichen,et al.Research on Reliability Modeling of Triple-eccentric Butterfly Valves Based on Markov Models[J].Machinery & Electronics,2026,44(05):16-23.
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基于马尔可夫模型的三偏心蝶阀可靠性建模研究()
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《机械与电子》[ISSN:1001-2257/CN:52-1052/TH]

卷:
44
期数:
2026年05期
页码:
16-23
栏目:
研究与设计
出版日期:
2026-05-27

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on Reliability Modeling of Triple-eccentric Butterfly Valves Based on Markov Models
文章编号:
1001-2257 ( 2026 ) 05-0016-08
作者:
张希恒 1 ; 2 ; 张志辰 1 ; 薛睿渊 1 ; 贾泾龙 1 ; 王志勇 1
1. 兰州理工大学石油化工学院,甘肃 兰州 730050 ;
2. 兰州理工大学温州泵阀工程研究院,浙江 温州 325105
Author(s):
ZHANG Xiheng1 ;  2 ;  ZHANG Zhichen1 ;  XUE Ruiyuan1 ;  JIA Jinglong1 ;  WANG Zhiyong1
( 1.School of Petrochemical Technology , Lanzhou University of Technology , Lanzhou 730050 , China ;
2.Wenzhou Pump Valve Engineering Research Institute , Lanzhou University of Technology , Wenzhou 325105 , China )
关键词:
三偏心蝶阀; 故障树; 马尔可夫模型; 可靠性
Keywords:
triple-eccentric butterfly valve ;  fault tree analysis ( FTA );  Markov model ;  reliability
分类号:
TH134
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对三偏心蝶阀系统性能退化甚至突发故障的多状态失效特性问题,提出了基于故障树与马尔可夫过程相结合的可靠性预测方法。以 DN150 三偏心蝶阀为例,建立其三维模型,结合有限元应力模拟分析与 Monte Carlo 方法,生成应力分布样本,进一步通过马尔可夫模型模拟可靠性演化过程,并进行误差分析。结果显示,马尔可夫模型有较强的预测能力和稳定性,能有效识别失效的主要部件、关键层底层事件及系统薄弱环节。该方法提升了可靠性评价的精度,可为三偏心蝶阀的优化设计和运维决策提供理论支撑。
Abstract:
Aiming at the multi state failure characteristics of triple eccentric butterfly valves , which encompass both progressive performance degradation and catastrophic sudden failures , a reliability prediction method integrating fault tree analysis ( FTA ) and Markov process is proposed.Taking a DN150 triple eccentric butterfly valve as an example , a three dimensional geometric model is established.A robust set of stress distribution samples is generated by leveraging finite element Analysis ( FEA ) for stress simulation in conjunction with the Monte Carlo method.Subsequently , the reliability evolution process was further simulated using a Markov model , followed by a rigorous error analysis.The results show that the Markov model has strong predictive ability and numerical stability , and can effectively identify the main failure components , key bottom events and weak links of the system.This method significantly improves the accuracy of reliability evaluation , and can provide theoretical support for the optimal design and operation and maintenance decision of triple eccentric butterfly valve.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2026-02-11
基金项目:甘肃省科技专员专项( 26CXGA011 );永嘉县科技局工业科技研究开发项目( XM2021053052 )
作者简介:张希恒 ( 1966- ),男,甘肃兰州人,副教授,研究方向为阀门设计与密封技术;张志辰 ( 2000- ),男,甘肃兰州人,硕士研究生,研究方向为阀门与密封技术,通信作者, E-mail : zzc107820@163.com 。
更新日期/Last Update: 2026-08-24