[1]吴 怡,唐家银,王劲博,等.融合新旧产品退化信息的可靠性建模研究[J].机械与电子,2024,42(04):9-14.
　WU Yi,TANG Jiayin,WANG Jinbo,et al.Research on Reliability Modeling by Integrating Old and New Product Degradation Data Information[J].Machinery & Electronics,2024,42(04):9-14.
点击复制

融合新旧产品退化信息的可靠性建模研究()
分享到：

《机械与电子》[ISSN:1001-2257/CN:52-1052/TH]

卷:
42
期数:
2024年04期
页码:
9-14
栏目:
研究与设计
出版日期:
2024-04-23

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on Reliability Modeling by Integrating Old and New Product Degradation Data Information
文章编号:
1001-2257 ( 2024 ) 04-0009-06
作者:
吴 怡; 唐家银; 王劲博; 刘新玲
西南交通大学数学学院,四川 成都 611756
Author(s):
WU Yi ;  TANG Jiayin ;  WANG Jinbo ;  LIU Xinling
( School of Mathematics , Southwest Jiaotong University , Chengdu 611756 , China )
关键词:
变系数分段回归模型; 截尾退化数据; 贝叶斯方法; 变点连续性; 分段退化可靠性评估模型
Keywords:
variable coefficient piecewise regression model ;  truncated degradation data ;  Bayesian method ;  continuity of change point ;  piecewise degradation reliability assessment model
分类号:
TB114.3
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对 2 阶段退化产品截尾数据难以进行精确可靠性评估问题,利用贝叶斯融合新产品截尾数据和相似产品 2 阶段退化数据信息,并采用变系数分段回归模型和变点思想建立了变系数分段退化可靠性评估模型。首先,运用泰勒展开式和遗传算法得到相似产品回归模型的参数估计值并拟合分布。其次,通过贝叶斯方法融合新旧产品第 1 阶段退化数据信息,基于变点的连续性建立阶段关系式得到第 2 阶段新产品参数估计量期望和方差。最后,利用相似产品退化量的分布类型和矩估计方法得到新产品退化量的分布以及分段可靠度函数。算例分析结果验证了该模型的有效性和精准性。
Abstract:
A reliability evaluation model was established for two-stage degenerate data with variable coefficients.This model utilized Bayesian fusion to integrate new product Truncated data and two-stage degenerate data from similar products.It also incorporated a variable coefficient piecewise regression model and the concept of change points.Firstly , the parameter estimates for similar product regression models were obtained by using Taylor expansion and a genetic algorithm , and then their distributions were fitted. Next , through integration with Bayesian methods , the expectation and variance of the new product parameter estimators in the second stage were obtained by combining the first stage degradation data of both new and old products.The model also took into account the continuity of the change points when establishing the stage relationship.By applying the distribution type and moment estimation method of similar product degradation , the distribution of the new product degradation and the piecewise reliability function were obtained.Finally , an example analysis was conducted to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the model.

参考文献/References:

[ 1 ] 杜海涛,褚学宁,马红占 . 基于性能数据的产品退化风险评估[ J ] . 机械设计与制造, 2019 ( 8 ): 258-260 , 264.

[ 2 ] ZHOU H X , ZHOU C G , WANG X Y , et al.Degradation reliability modeling for two-stage degradation ball screws [ J ] .Precision engineering , 2022 , 73 :347-362.
[ 3 ] GAO H D , CUI L R , DONG Q L.Reliability modeling for a two-phase degradation system with a change point based on a Wiener process [ J ] .Reliability engineering and system safety , 2020 , 193 : 106601.
[ 4 ] CARLIN B P , GELFAND A E , SMITH A F M , Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of changepoint problems [ J ] . Journal of the royal statistical society series C : applied statistics , 1992 , 41 ( 2 ): 389-405.
[ 5 ] CAI X , TIAN Y B , NING W.Change-point analysis of the failure mechanisms based on accelerated life tests [ J ] .Reliability engineering and system safety ,2019 , 188 : 515-522.
[ 6 ] 李潇瀛,方鸽,李昌均 . 基于 FCM-ARIMA 的多阶段退化设备寿命预测研究[ J ] . 计算机仿真, 2021 , 38 ( 8 ):33-36 , 74.
[ 7 ] 冯海林,王雨薇 . 基于支持向量回归与 Bayesian 理论的 性能退化产品可靠性分析[ J ] . 南京大学学报(自然科学版),2019 , 55 ( 2 ): 161-169.
[ 8 ] 柯贤朝 . 基于相似产品法的某发射箱端盖可靠性预计[ J ] . 环境技术, 2022 , 40 ( 4 ): 35-37.
[ 9 ] LU Z W , CAO S C , OUYANG H J , et al.Crack localization in stepped rotors based on Bayesian fusion of multiscale superharmonic characteristic deflection shapes [ J ] .Fatigue and fracture of engineering materials and structures , 2020 , 43 ( 10 ): 2200-2213.
[ 10 ] 唐莉,唐家银,程世娟 . 多源异构数据贝叶斯统计融合可靠性评估模型[ J ] . 机械强度, 2022 , 44 ( 1 ): 126-132.
[ 11 ] FARAGALLI A , SKRAMI E , BUCCI A , et al.Combining bayesian calibration and copula models for age estimation [ J ] .International journal of environmental research and public health , 2023 , 20 ( 2 ): 1201.
[ 12 ] 李志华,俞建峰,钱陈豪 . 基于双种群遗传算法的含缺陷矩形件排样优化研究 [ J ] . 机械与电子,2023 , 41( 3 ): 7-12.
[ 13 ] CHEN H L , LIU Z H , WU B , et al.A technique based on nonlinear Hanning-windowed chirplet model and genetic algorithm for parameter estimation of Lamb wave signals [ J ] .Ultrasonics , 2021 , 111 : 106333.
[ 14 ] 吴晓辉,蔡忠义,李全祥 . 融合内外场退化数据的可靠性评估方法[ J ] . 合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),2017 , 40 ( 12 ): 1589-1593.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2023-09-10
基金项目:西南交大首期来华留学全英语授课精品课程项目( LHJP [ 2023 ] 10 );教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目( 20XJAZH009 );西南交通大学教育教学研究与改革项目重点项目( 20220320 )
作者简介:吴 怡 ( 1999- ),女,四川遂宁人,硕士研究生,研究方向为可靠性统计;唐家银 ( 1980- ),男,安徽芜湖人,副教授,研究向为可靠性统计与算法设计、应用工程统计、统计机器学习,通信作者;王劲博 ( 1999- ),男,四川成都人,硕士研究生,研究方向为可靠性工程与应用;刘新玲 ( 1998- ),女,四川自贡人,硕士研究生,研究方向为可靠性评估。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-04-29